2020 Q1 Economic Review and Outlook

February 6, 2020

We are entering a new decade in the midst of an old expansion. The length of the expansion does not suggest a recession is imminent, but it does imply that GDP growth will struggle to exceed 2% consistently even as interest rates remain near historic lows. The Federal Reserve is faced with the daunting task of moving interest rates higher without squelching the expansion so it has more firepower to stimulate a recovery when the next recession hits. In this update, we evaluate what current economic trends mean for the future and why, paradoxically, the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates this year than raise them.

View/Download PDF