Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 22, 2019

February 25, 2019

Last Week Today. The number of market-moving events was low last week, but there were two significant developments. Minutes from the January Fed meeting were dovish as expected, highlighted by a near unanimous decision to halt Quantitative Tightening (QT) by year-end. The pause in rate hikes and lower forecast QT have reconciled the Fed’s outlook […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 18, 2019

February 18, 2019

Last Week Today. January’s inflation data indicated that widespread pricing pressure continues to be a non-issue, supporting the Fed’s decision to lay down their interest-rate-hiking guns. | Retail sales fell 1.2% in January, pushing down the Atlanta Fed’s estimate of Q4 growth from 2.7% to 1.5%… a significant slowdown from the second and third quarter’s […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 8, 2019

February 11, 2019

Last Week Today. Senators Bernie Sanders and Charles Schumer announced a plan to introduce a bill limiting corporate stock buybacks. This bill suggests that the government knows better than management teams how to allocate scarce capital in the most productive capacity. I wonder if the esteemed senators have read Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged? | In […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 1, 2019

February 4, 2019

Weekly Synopsis Notes Last Week Today. The Government got back to work. Financial markets did not reward the re-opening, implying that investors (conditioned by past government closures) did not pay much mind to the initial government closure either. | Central Bankers expressed less optimism about the future as the ECB and the Fed both backed […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for January 11, 2019

January 14, 2019

Last Week Today. Trade talks between China and the US resumed in Beijing and were extended by a day (viewed as a positive). | Saudi Arabia’s oil minister vowed to “stabilize” the market. | The Fed’s minutes from their December meeting articulated a cautious shift toward further interest rate hikes. | The U.S. Government shutdown […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for December 14, 2018

December 17, 2018

Christmas is a time when kids tell Santa what they want and adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell the government what they want and their kids pay for it. – Richard Lamm Last Week Today: November’s budget deficit was the largest on record for the US at $205 billion (vs. $129 billion […]

Covenant’s Weekly Market Synopsis for December 7, 2018

December 10, 2018

Last Week Today. After HSBC’s anti-money laundering compliance group reported a series of suspicious financial transactions, China-based Huawei Co.’s CFO was arrested for alleged violations of US sanctions on Iran. Her arrest came only days after presidents Trump and Jinping’s described their trade talks as successful. | Over the weekend, China summoned the Canadian envoy […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for November 30, 2018

December 3, 2018

Last Week Today. The first of two revisions for Q3 GDP matched expectations of 3.5% and was unchanged from the original estimate. The trailing four-quarter GDP growth average is 3% – well above the 2.1% trend since the Financial Crisis, but likely heading back to trend once the effects of fiscal stimulus fade in 2019. […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for November 23, 2018

November 26, 2018

In a holiday-shortened week, we diverge from our usual Market Synopsis format to focus on two investment assets making the majority of headlines: equities and crude oil. Equity Market Update. There was not much to be thankful for last week in the land of risk assets, particularly in the US: S&P 500: -3.8% / -2.74% […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for November 9, 2018

November 12, 2018

“For a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” – Winston Churchill Last Week Today. The results of the midterm elections, while exciting in certain local races, concluded as expected at the national level with a divided […]