Covenant Weekly Synopsis for May 17, 2019

May 19, 2019

Last Week Today. German Bund yields went negative (again), reaching a 1.5-year low of –0.106%. | President Trump and his team began moving pieces on the global trade chessboard for countries not named “China”: tariffs on European and Japanese autos delayed for at least six months; steel/aluminum tariffs removed for Canada and Mexico; Turkish steel […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for May 10, 2019

May 13, 2019

Synopsis 2019.05.10 Last Week Today.  Trade negotiators for China and the U.S. failed to reach an agreement last week, an event well-covered by the media. However, on Sunday White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow revealed President Trump’s cognitive dissonance on tariffs when he conceded that China is not paying the duties as the President regularly […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for May 3, 2019

May 6, 2019

Last Week Today: China’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.1 in April (from 50.4 in March) coming dangerously close to 50 – the threshold marking expansion or contraction. | President Trump and top Democrats (including Pelosi and Schumer) outlined a $2 trillion infrastructure plan focused on improving mass transit and expanding broadband systems. Bipartisan anything […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for April 26, 2019

April 29, 2019

Last Week Today: In an effort to cut off Iranian oil exports and further isolate the country, the White House announced the end of waivers that had allowed eight countries to buy Iranian oil. The price of crude initially jumped on supply concerns (Iran currently exports approx. 1.2 million barrels per day) but fell later […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for April 12, 2019

April 15, 2019

Synopsis 2019.04.12 Last Week Today:  U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer proposed tariffs on $11.2 billion of European Union products (e.g., fish, cheese, wine, airplanes) in retaliation for subsidies paid to Airbus SE. | The International Monetary Fund revised growth expectations lower for the U.S. (2.5% à 2.3%) and the global economy (3.5% à 3.3%).  |  […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for March 29, 2019

April 1, 2019

Last Week Today. President Trump suggested he will nominate Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve. A loyalist to the President, Moore called for Fed Chair Powell’s resignation after the Fed raised rates last December. In an interview last week with the New York Times Moore called for an immediate 50bps cut in the Fed Funds […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for March 22, 2019

March 25, 2019

Last Week Today. The U.S. announced it would maintain tariffs on Chinese imports for the “foreseeable” future to enforce the terms of a trade deal, but later appeared to backtrack (or clarify) that not all tariffs would remain in place after a deal is struck. Lighthizer and Mnuchin head to China this week to continue […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for March 15, 2019

March 18, 2019

Last Week Today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s interview on 60 Minutes revealed little new information and was likely intended to clarify the Fed’s current views. Powell did take the opportunity to emphasize confidence in the US economy (while acknowledging it will grow at a much slower rate in 2019) and stress the independence of the […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for March 1, 2019

March 4, 2019

Risk On.  Following one of the worst December’s in the last 30 years, in 2019 equity markets began with one of the strongest January rallies in decades. Though momentum waned in February for developed market equities, risk assets continued higher, and the S&P 500 is now off to the best two-month start to a year […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 22, 2019

February 25, 2019

Last Week Today. The number of market-moving events was low last week, but there were two significant developments. Minutes from the January Fed meeting were dovish as expected, highlighted by a near unanimous decision to halt Quantitative Tightening (QT) by year-end. The pause in rate hikes and lower forecast QT have reconciled the Fed’s outlook […]