Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for March 15, 2019

March 18, 2019

Last Week Today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s interview on 60 Minutes revealed little new information and was likely intended to clarify the Fed’s current views. Powell did take the opportunity to emphasize confidence in the US economy (while acknowledging it will grow at a much slower rate in 2019) and stress the independence of the […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for March 1, 2019

March 4, 2019

Risk On.  Following one of the worst December’s in the last 30 years, in 2019 equity markets began with one of the strongest January rallies in decades. Though momentum waned in February for developed market equities, risk assets continued higher, and the S&P 500 is now off to the best two-month start to a year […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 22, 2019

February 25, 2019

Last Week Today. The number of market-moving events was low last week, but there were two significant developments. Minutes from the January Fed meeting were dovish as expected, highlighted by a near unanimous decision to halt Quantitative Tightening (QT) by year-end. The pause in rate hikes and lower forecast QT have reconciled the Fed’s outlook […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 18, 2019

February 18, 2019

Last Week Today. January’s inflation data indicated that widespread pricing pressure continues to be a non-issue, supporting the Fed’s decision to lay down their interest-rate-hiking guns. | Retail sales fell 1.2% in January, pushing down the Atlanta Fed’s estimate of Q4 growth from 2.7% to 1.5%… a significant slowdown from the second and third quarter’s […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 8, 2019

February 11, 2019

Last Week Today. Senators Bernie Sanders and Charles Schumer announced a plan to introduce a bill limiting corporate stock buybacks. This bill suggests that the government knows better than management teams how to allocate scarce capital in the most productive capacity. I wonder if the esteemed senators have read Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged? | In […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for February 1, 2019

February 4, 2019

Weekly Synopsis Notes Last Week Today. The Government got back to work. Financial markets did not reward the re-opening, implying that investors (conditioned by past government closures) did not pay much mind to the initial government closure either. | Central Bankers expressed less optimism about the future as the ECB and the Fed both backed […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for January 11, 2019

January 14, 2019

Last Week Today. Trade talks between China and the US resumed in Beijing and were extended by a day (viewed as a positive). | Saudi Arabia’s oil minister vowed to “stabilize” the market. | The Fed’s minutes from their December meeting articulated a cautious shift toward further interest rate hikes. | The U.S. Government shutdown […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for December 14, 2018

December 17, 2018

Christmas is a time when kids tell Santa what they want and adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell the government what they want and their kids pay for it. – Richard Lamm Last Week Today: November’s budget deficit was the largest on record for the US at $205 billion (vs. $129 billion […]

Covenant’s Weekly Market Synopsis for December 7, 2018

December 10, 2018

Last Week Today. After HSBC’s anti-money laundering compliance group reported a series of suspicious financial transactions, China-based Huawei Co.’s CFO was arrested for alleged violations of US sanctions on Iran. Her arrest came only days after presidents Trump and Jinping’s described their trade talks as successful. | Over the weekend, China summoned the Canadian envoy […]

Covenant Weekly Market Synopsis for November 30, 2018

December 3, 2018

Last Week Today. The first of two revisions for Q3 GDP matched expectations of 3.5% and was unchanged from the original estimate. The trailing four-quarter GDP growth average is 3% – well above the 2.1% trend since the Financial Crisis, but likely heading back to trend once the effects of fiscal stimulus fade in 2019. […]